Sunday, November 2, 2008

Electoral Map Predictions

McGramps, the unhinged right-wing, and the corporate media are desperately grasping at straws and attempting to make a story that McCain is on the verge of winning.

Electoral-vote.com
was actually one of the most accurate electoral vote predictors from 2004:

On Nov 4th they predicted, Kerry 252 Bush 279 and the actual results were Kerry 251 Bush 286.
Today, they have it: Obama 353 McCain 185



Update I:


Votes needed to win: 270

NTRADE (based on trading in candidate futures)
http://electoralmap.net/index.php
Obama: 353 EC votes
McCain: 174 EC votes
Too close to call: 11 EC votes
Update: Obama loses 11 to McCain.

ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM (a respected consolidator of poll results)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Obama: 364
McCain: 171
Too close: 3
Update: McCain gains 11 from Obama and 3 from "too close."

REAL CLEAR POLITICS
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama_vs_mccain
Obama: 311
McCain: 142
Too close: 85
Update: McCain loses 5 to Obama and 10 to "too close."

538.COM
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Obama: 346
McCain: 192
Too close: 0
Update: McCain gains 5 from Obama.

POLLSTER.COM
http://www.pollster.com/
Obama: 311
McCain: 142
Too close: 85
Comment: Obama gains 5 from "too close."